Workshop 2 Assessment of risks associated with investing. project
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Task 1.
According to the given data rate sensitivity of NPV of the project to changes in sales volume and selling prices.
The most likely option
Task 2.
Conduct scenario analysis NPV change depending on changes in sales volume, sales prices, cost of individual components. Estimated probability of each of the scenarios presented in the table.
The most likely option
Task 3.
The Company expects to realize the investment project with the initial investment at the level of 240 mln. Rubles. With a probability of 50% in the first year of the project will bring 200 million. Rubles. However, if market forces will develop positively, the project will in the first year, 500 mln. Rub. (25% chance). Adverse market conditions lead to the fact that the project in the first year would cover only operating costs and net cash flow is equal to 0. The successful implementation of the project in the first year, the second year will allow to increase sales and bring incremental flow of the project up to 900 mln. Rubles. with a probability of 40%. Otherwise, the result of the first year will be doubled. The unfavorable development of the project in the first year, is likely to affect the state of affairs in the second year: 70% chance the result will be negative - 100 million. And only a 30% chance you can count on 100 million. Positive cash flow. If the most likely outcome a company with a 50% increase in cash inflow of 500 mln. Rubles. or save the results of the previous year.
It is necessary to estimate the expected NPV of the project.
Task 4.
Open Joint Stock Company "Chelyabinsk Tube Rolling Plant" was founded 65 years ago and is one of the largest companies for the production of pipes in Russia. ChTPZ share in the total production of pipe products manufactured in the Russian Federation, is about 12%.
On CTRP, the following types of pipe production:
• hot rolling pilger pipe-rolling plants;
• hot rolling mill with an automatic installation;
• cold rolling tube;
• arc welding of longitudinal welded pipes submerged;
• Continuous oven welding;
• pipe welding currents of radio frequency.
According to the given data rate sensitivity of NPV of the project to changes in sales volume and selling prices.
The most likely option
Task 2.
Conduct scenario analysis NPV change depending on changes in sales volume, sales prices, cost of individual components. Estimated probability of each of the scenarios presented in the table.
The most likely option
Task 3.
The Company expects to realize the investment project with the initial investment at the level of 240 mln. Rubles. With a probability of 50% in the first year of the project will bring 200 million. Rubles. However, if market forces will develop positively, the project will in the first year, 500 mln. Rub. (25% chance). Adverse market conditions lead to the fact that the project in the first year would cover only operating costs and net cash flow is equal to 0. The successful implementation of the project in the first year, the second year will allow to increase sales and bring incremental flow of the project up to 900 mln. Rubles. with a probability of 40%. Otherwise, the result of the first year will be doubled. The unfavorable development of the project in the first year, is likely to affect the state of affairs in the second year: 70% chance the result will be negative - 100 million. And only a 30% chance you can count on 100 million. Positive cash flow. If the most likely outcome a company with a 50% increase in cash inflow of 500 mln. Rubles. or save the results of the previous year.
It is necessary to estimate the expected NPV of the project.
Task 4.
Open Joint Stock Company "Chelyabinsk Tube Rolling Plant" was founded 65 years ago and is one of the largest companies for the production of pipes in Russia. ChTPZ share in the total production of pipe products manufactured in the Russian Federation, is about 12%.
On CTRP, the following types of pipe production:
• hot rolling pilger pipe-rolling plants;
• hot rolling mill with an automatic installation;
• cold rolling tube;
• arc welding of longitudinal welded pipes submerged;
• Continuous oven welding;
• pipe welding currents of radio frequency.
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