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Solving problem N3645 Bayesian probability theory

Content: teorver_3645.doc (29.00 KB)
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3645. The QC controller receives products made by four workers. A total of 200 items arrived; of them: 10% made the first worker; 25% - the second; 15% - the third. The probability of marriage for the first worker is 0.1; the second is 0.2; the third - 0.15; fourth - 0.25. At random, the chosen product turned out to be without marriage. What is the probability that it is manufactured by the first worker?
Detailed solution. Decorated in Microsoft Word 2003 (Quest decided to use the formula editor)
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